QUESTION

Technically external pressures can work if

Technically external pressures can work if the whole world unites behind it.  If ALL countries in the world stopped dealing with Iran and didn't buy their oil, how long do you think the regime would last?

So the subject should be if Americans stopped the external pressures.  That doesn't seem to work and it can have negative effects.  The Iranian economy is in ruins even with the price of oil at all time high.  Current sanctions are not that big of a deal and Ahadminejad had said it himself.

So if everything stays the same as they are, even with few more sanctions like the before, it won't have any effect on the regime.  If anything they can't use the sanctions as the reason behind the economic failures when oil prices are at all time highs.

Some conservatives have already started criticizing Ahmadinejad and NOT the West or America.

But if the kind of sanctions change or if any military adventure starts, surgical or other kind, then yes that will be used to strengthen the regime's foothold.

Midwesty looks like he has

Midwesty looks like he has cute potential.

Anonymousaa,

"You don't know America or Americans so well...Americans are exceptionalist and at the end of the day they want to be number one with all the fringe benefits that comes with it; hence, electing Bush twice. They are not as stupid as you think they are".

Well...I don't see myself in that position to lump sum an entire nation and characterize them with only a word, "exceptionalist". I wonder in all countries that I've been who else didn't think his/her country wasn't the best in the world because they had better food, bluer sky, denser forests, more lakes, taller skyscrapers, prettier women, smarter kids and what not.

Bush didn’t get elected by the people who voted for him he got elected by intellects and smart people that chose to stay home and not to vote. We are getting out of subject now but since you brought it up and I am at it I give you my two cents on US elections. I guarantee you if Hillary gets the DNC’s nomination McCain will be the president. This is what exactly happened in 2000 and 2004. People ran out of choice, stayed home and the republican base stayed energized and coordinated and finally got what they needed.

I believe in the goodwill and power of any people. This is not propaganda; I’ve seen it with my own eyes. That’s why the freaking media are trying so hard to influence the public’s view but they have always failed miserably. That’s why Internet is on rise and that’s why JJ has to work more on developing a sophisticated news section that holds every day a collection of diversified news section from rightwing conservative to liberal leftists. Americans are starving for a change. I know this is an Iranian website but you like it or not what happens in this country automatically and directly affects ALL Iranians.

"Believe or not the major

"Believe or not the major muscle, the ordinary Americans who where behind Bush’s idea of spreading democracy got fooled with his language and his choice of words. "

You don't know America or Americans so well...Americans are exceptionalist and at the end of the day they want to be number one with all the fringe benefits that comes with it; hence, electing Bush twice. They are not as stupid as you think they are.

Plus, it doesn't matter what the American people want; the American foreign policy has never been based on what the people want...You're deluding yourself if you think so.

It is highly likely that they will elect McCain over Obama for the same exact reason...Just check out some of the most progressive blogs like daily kos of 4 or 5 years ago. They have changed drastically since, however, one more attack on US soil will change everything.

Couple of points...

Anonymousaa,

I try to discuss my point in the context of democracy not the geopolitics of oil. I am seeing this from the people’s point of view and I reject it from the same angle. Believe or not the major muscle, the ordinary Americans who where behind Bush’s idea of spreading democracy got fooled with his language and his choice of words. They didn’t support Bush to bomb Iraq to stop China’s thirst for oil; they wanted to remove Saddam who was a vicious DICTATOR.

Abarmard,

what Anonymouszxsa said was not related to this argument. He said,” If a society gets sick under a dictatorial regime …” I did not claim that. I believe a society gets sick when it is under external pressure. Again, the cause of sickness is “external pressure” the effect is a dictatorial regime which is what body takes/produces in order to get rid of the sickness.

Abarmard: No sanctions or

Abarmard: No sanctions or attacks are going to bring democracy to Iran...However, you're under the false impression that the sanctions and any eventual attack on Iran is going to be for the cause of bringing democracy. This could not be farther from the truth and realties of US foreign policy.

Attacking Iran is going to be strictly based on cost-benefit analysis of geopolitical standing of the US in regards to rise of militristic China if the US left the Middle East for China and to some extent to Russia; Watch Obama's interview on CNN. Obama said the biggest threat to future economic and military standing of the US is China.

//www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/05/08/obama/?iref...

Countries do what they have to do to protect their interests and you can't stop them. Politics is nothing but business....This is hard cold fact and has nothing to do with democracy, fairness, or justice. This is the way it has been since beginning of time.

B

That's why Anonymousaa

Based on your own argument, current regime is bound to collapse. Am I correct? Yet the external factors could keep feed the disease so it will last longer. Would that be the pressures of the west?

I believe sanctions and pressures on the current regime does just that. Otherwise we would react to get our bodies healthy again.

This is a false argument. No

This is a false argument. No dictatorship whether dictatorship of porletariat or dictatorship of Bourgeoisi (sp?) is ever justified in the grand scheme of things. Not only that, it is a dysfunctional and unsustainable method of control because it is inherently reactionary and abusive and it will ultimately self-destruct. It is all in the way how human brain is hard wired to protect itself from a hostile environment.

I suggest your read up on irreprable damages caused by an authoritarian and abusive parents on their child.

There are thousands of scientific longtitudeanl, cross-cultural ,and empirical studies on authoritarian style of child rearing and how they affect your biology (brain organization) and psychology (cognitive deficiencies)...

Anonymouszxsa very nice pick

But could you argue that a sick society is also dictatorial. Chicken or egg! Thanks for bringing a good argument to this theory.

Thanks for your analysis

I would try to expand more on your ideas rather than jump from one example to a theory then a conclusion. I like the base of the analysis, but I believe a little more expansion on the concept and patience in writing would've made this article more effective. Based on your introduction I assumed the body would be more detailed in the exploring your idea. I personally would've like a bit more depth. Please don't think that I am saying it has no depth, I only think you could've expand a few prographs to enforce your theory. I enjoyed reading it alot. Thank you.

"Dictatorship is an Effect"!???

What kind of twisted reality do you operate on. There are thousands of political science studies and historical evidence that will disprove your cockamamy theory; if you posit this ludicrous theory in a political blog such as dailykos, you will be a laughing stock...You, Q, Abarmard, and other usual suspects are insulting our intelligence and the only ones who don't realize how ridiculous and desperate you sound are yourself alone. You people epitomize and manifest the twisted thinking of a morally bankrupt system of Islamic Republic's indoctrination.

P.S. Freedom is a natural and God-given right of every human being. And it can only be taken away by brute force and oppression.

Midwesty

What's up with the goatie?! is that the professor goatie or other kinds like just annoying, koseh, teenage or blast from past?!  Just joking my friend don't take me seriously, the picture is good :-)

You are correct, they are brainless

The problem in US is the fact that no one who has any brain and qualifications would run for high office.

The ones who do are normally doing it to satisfy their big egos, selfishness and hunger for power.

You are correct, the current Admin. in DC is totally brainless. If it wasn't for his family's wealth and influence, GW would not even graduate out of Elementary School. His IQ could not be higher than 25, if that.

Thanks for the Blog.

Well...

Anonymous posters,

I believe a dictatorship is a an effect not a cause. The cause is the environment in which dictatorship grows. But I might be very well wrong. This is my opinion.   

Q jaan,

 You are right, there is a third possibility and it looks frightening and sickening to me!! However I hope the pre-Iraq strategies will never work for Iran. Dollar is in a dump, gas prices and inflation on necessary goods are soaring and the preemption doctrine is ditched along its parents. It's about time to see the real Americans and Iranians taking over.  

Fred, Your approach in commenting has changed and it's good:O) I like to know where in my writings I was contradictory.

The enamored

True to form, this is yet another exercise by an enamored in patch quilying together contradictory statments in support of the Islamist Republic

Gol Gofti

even the worst dictatorships (Hitler, Mao, USSR, Mussolini) came to power with overwhelming popular support. That means the people felt justified in trading their own freedom for the security, focus and law/order that the system provides.

The more severe the surrounding conditions, threats and perceived assaults, the more people willingly allow authoritarial rule. This already happened in Iran during the devestating Iran-Iraq war where a sense of siege and assault on national identity was so strong that any tradeoff with civil freedoms was deemed worth the prize... and it WAS. The Islamic Republic didn't have to be as authoritarian as it ended up being by the end of the war, had it not been for the western supported invasion.

This is exactly why the absolute worst policy for furthering freedom and democracy in Iran is sanctions and threats of war, even the robbing of national rights (like nuclear enrichment) serves the purpose. Instead of weakening the authoritarian tendencies of the system, it will strengthen and legitimize them.

I think there is another possiblity you may not have considered: That the Bush Administration wants the IRI to be more authoritarian and to stay in power.

There is plenty of justification for this view, if you grant that the primary interest in Iran is economic. If US has decided that it can't change the regime by force and replace it with a puppet government ala Iraq/Afghanistan, the next best thing it can do is to keep it weak but in power.

The best case scenario for the Western powers isn't a "democratic" Iran, that's all BS feel-good propaganda. We all know how much they push "democracy" in other client states like Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan. So, it's just a ploy. Democracy is only good if it can be controlled and subservient to the imperialist powers. That's why they have no problem calling current Iraq and Afghanistan "democracy", even though the average Iranian can exercise far more democracy than either of those two countries even right now.

What they want is control. IF the fruit of a "democracy" campaign can be controlled by them, they are for it. If it can't be, they are against it. That's why, if they can't implement regime change by force, they rather it didn't happen at all. Because if it ever did on its own, they would have no excuse but to allow Iran to enter into the world market without guaranteeing them any "no-bid" contracts. But if they keep the regime in power, and continue to keep it week, they may not get the loot, but at least, they are also keeping away the competitors. It's not a bad proposition to keep it "on ice" until they are ready.

That's what they did to Iraq during the 90s. They kept it weak, but purposefully kept Saddam in power just to prevent Iraq from falling into the hands of china and Russia (and Iran.)

"Those who would give up

"Those who would give up Essential Liberty to purchase a little Temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety"--Ben Franklin in 1759

Remember the US was a colony of the British.

"dictatorship is a survival

"dictatorship is a survival tactic for a society."

Only cowards and ignorant people deem such a dysfunctional tactic as a survival mechanism. This "tactic" spells their doom and it is only a manifestation of their pathology.

A better survival and enduring tactic is to avoid brute force and repression and be in the service of its people and citizens instead of sacrificing citizen's liberty and prosperty in the service of its dictatorial regime...

I've got to handed to you though, at first glance, your argument is deviously plausible...Twisted and warped mind can only come up with this kind of sophism.

"A society under a

"A society under a dictatorial regime is a human body on antibiotics". A nation under siege...

You're stretching definitions to fit your agenda and in the same paragraph you contradict yourself. If a society gets sick under a dictatorial regime in which it would require antibiotic then how can equate the regime with the dicatorship disease-ridden nation. The name of the disease is "dictatorship" that has afflicted the nation not the other way around.

The dictatorial regime is causing the illness of the society in the first place.

A dictatorial regime is a like an AIDS virus (not bacteria that can be killed with antibiotics) attacking it's host's body and psyche. The patient(the nation) will eventually suffer from multiple organ failure (MOF) involving renal failure, as well as the failure of heart, liver, lung, and central nervous systems and eventually it's heart and soul stops. Iran is a very sick nation with a sick soul who needs to find the will to beat this disease and find strengths in her long history to survive this ravaging disease.

"A society under a

"A society under a dictatorial regime is a human body on antibiotics."

I like that...or maybe a society under dictatorial regime is a human body with cancer, with selfish individuals multiplying and perpetuating their ideologies, while blindly wreaking havoc on the communities and societies they live in. It is strange to me that even the simplist mind can understand that this behavior is fatal in the human body, and yet some of the greatest minds overlook these effects in the world-body.

Thanks for your blog.